National popular vote is coming to a state near you
A movement is afoot to subvert the Electoral College, as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact continues to attract member states. Last year, Gov. Tim Walz signed a bill entering Minnesota into the compact, and this year Maine joined it too.
At stake is the power of the individual voter and the individual state in presidential elections. If the National Popular Vote compact comes to fruition, it would open the door for the first loser takes-all election system in American history.
There are 538 electoral votes. It takes a majority, or 270 votes, to win the presidency. When 270 votes worth of states have joined the compact, it goes live.
When Minnesota pledged its 10 electoral votes, the compact reached 205 votes. With Maine signing on this year, it has 209 votes. That’s 77% of the votes needed.
When the compact takes effect, every state in the compact would vote together, as a bloc, for the top nationwide vote-getter. Even if state voters chose someone else.
For instance: In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes. But Hillary Clinton won nationwide by about 3 million votes.
By the rules of National Popular Vote, Clinton would’ve won all 16 of Michigan’s electoral votes at the time, despite losing the state. The will of state voters would not matter. It would be drowned out by votes cast in other states. Loser-takes-all.
Under National Popular Vote bill, there’s only one scenario where state votes would matter: a nationwide tie. With 150 million voters in presidential elections, that’s all but impossible.
When people hear the phrase “national popular vote,” they might think they’re getting direct election of the president. But that would take a U.S. Constitutional Amendment, just as it took the 17th Amendment to earn direct election of U.S. Senators.
By design, the U.S. Constitution is rarely amended. Amendments require super majorities in both houses of Congress, along with 38 states. Constitution-level changes demand extreme consensus.
Enter the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which in 2006 was envisioned as an end-run around the Electoral College. This was in the aftermath of the 2000 election, where George W. Bush won the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote.
Three other presidents before Bush were elected the same way, but none within living memory: John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, and Benjamin Harrison in 1888.
Before Bush, the idea of someone winning the presidency but losing the vote was viewed as trivia, as a question you might see on Jeopardy! Now it was reality. Many Democrats believed that the Electoral College cost them an election they rightfully won.
Then it happened again in 2016 with Trump. The 2016 election breathed new life into the national popular vote movement. Seven states have joined the compact since Trump was elected.
Before Bush, the idea of someone winning the presidency but losing the vote was viewed as trivia, as a question you might see on Jeopardy!
Under National Popular Vote, there is no need for supermajorities nationwide. All it takes is simple majorities in each compact state. In the Minnesota Senate, the bill containing National Popular Vote only passed 34-31.
In Michigan, a National Popular Vote bill is awaiting a vote of the full House, and has for more than a year. But with the entire Michigan House up for election in November, lawmaking has stalled, and controversial bills tucked away.
The sponsor of the National Popular Vote bill, Democratic Rep. Carrie Rheingans, has twice vowed that the bill was close to a vote. Then, twice, the summer passed and there was no vote. House Democrats aren’t united on the bill.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills is a Democrat. She allowed the Pine Tree State to join the compact, but did not sign the bill.
“I struggle to reconcile the fact that a candidate who has fewer actual votes than their opponent can still become President of the United States,” Mills said in a statement explaining her decision.
If the compact does reach 270 votes, a new battle would begin, this time in courtrooms and the halls of Congress.
An interstate compact of this importance is likely to draw scrutiny and demand the approval of Congress. And the U.S. Supreme Court is likely to take interest in a plot with spoken and explicit designs on maneuvering around the Electoral College.
Where does the National Popular Vote movement stand in your state?
James David Dickson is host of the Enjoyer Podcast and covers Michigan as a swing-state in 2024 for the New York Post.
